Enjoy the relatively comfortable afternoon. An Arctic cold front will move across the region overnight. As a result, high temperatures tomorrow will be in the low-mid 30’s (some 20’s across higher elevations), with a northwest wind at 15-25 mph & gusts over 30 mph producing wind-chills in the teens-low 20’s. Low temperatures Wednesday night will … Read more
This system is looking very unimpressive. I’m thinking the liquid-equivalent (melted) precipitation amounts will be similar to the Short Range Ensemble Mean pictured above, or less. Some flurries or showers possible in western CT this afternoon, elsewhere late today or this evening. Some areas of light snow and/or flurries around tonight, lingering into part of … Read more
The weekend situation still has as much uncertainty now as it did yesterday. Just to give you a taste of this look at the two short-term model ensembles below. These are multiple model runs of the same model, after changing the initial conditions a little each time. By doing this, you can gauge how likely … Read more
I wouldn’t believe any forecasts you hear about the weekend before tomorrow. A clipper dropping into the Great Lakes Saturday will give way to a developing low offshore. This low will be fairly distant from us, however there will be an inverted trough (see image above) extending back toward the original low for a while, … Read more
Yesterday’s storm came and went on the same date as day 3 of the blizzard of 1888. That storm produced 5 times as much snow (50.0″) in Middletown as this one did. Yesterday’s storm tracked close enough to the coast so as to bring the rain & sleet/snow line inland earlier than forecast the day … Read more
The map above represents my best estimate as of 1:30 PM. The models have come into somewhat of a consensus during the past 24 hours, however there are still differences regarding the exact track this storm will take , which is going to affect who gets how much snow. Although the exact amounts of snowfall … Read more
(Map above is the ECMWF model forecast for 1 PM Tuesday afternoon. The purple line that stretches from NY City to Durham, CT to south of Boston is roughly where the boundary between snow and mixed precipitation or rain is forecast to be at that time by this model. The other models currently have this … Read more
With the ECMWF & GFS models continuing to forecast a significant coastal storm affecting the northeast Tuesday into Wednesday, rumors will no doubt be running rampant into the weekend. Here is what we know and what we don’t know as of now (2:30 PM Friday). 1) With the medium range models remaining consistent in forecasting … Read more
Not making any changes to yesterday’s forecast for tomorrow’s snow. Many people asking about Tuesday’s storm. At this point there is fairly good model consensus on a nor’easter, with the potential for a foot or more of snow in parts of the region, but there’s still a lot of time between now & then and … Read more
After enjoying temperatures between 55-60 this afternoon and a quiet day Thursday, our attention will turn to an area of low pressure that is going to slide out just to our south Friday morning, bringing a period of snow to the region starting during the predawn hours of Friday and ending by early Friday afternoon. … Read more
