Mostly cloudy this afternoon. Some places will see a few breaks in the clouds. A little light snow and flurries at times from western MA, down across northwestern CT, upstate NY, and northwestern NJ. Highs in the upper 20’s-low 30’s (higher on Long Island). Occasional light snow north & west of Hartford, CT tonight, with … Read more
Map above shows SREF surface pressure & 3-hour precipitation for 7 AM Wednesday. The larger box in the top-center is the mean of the ensemble member solutions. (Click to Enlarge). An area of low pressure over the Great Lakes tomorrow will give way to a weak, secondary low off the mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night. The … Read more
The larger image above is the mean of the individual SREF ensemble members. Click to enlarge. Periods of rain will continue this afternoon and tonight, then taper off during Saturday morning. There will be some embedded moderate to heavy showers and even the chance for some thunder. The mild, moist air running over what’s left … Read more
The track of today’s nor’easter has steadily trended further west during the past 2-3 days. As a result, I have increased expected snow amounts for western portions of the region. Snow will taper to flurries this evening. Strong, gusty winds and bitter cold temperatures will make snow removal more difficult than usual during the next … Read more
Radar imagery and surface reports so far have not been confirming the idea of the hi-res, short-term models that have depicted a narrow corridor of the highest precipitation amounts a little east of the I-91 corridor. In fact, at the time of this writing (12:53 PM) the heaviest semi-permanent heavy snowband is actually stretching from … Read more
The NWS has upgraded New Haven, Middlesex & New London Counties to a Blizzard Warning. Many places outside of the Blizzard Warning will still experience near-blizzard conditions at times today. There is usually a band or two of heavier snow the sets up during a storm and becomes semi-stationary for a while. This is where … Read more
Based on the latest runs of the SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) and GFS model, I am revising my snowfall forecast for tomorrow up a little (see map above). It will be interesting to see if the ECMWF is in the same ballpark this afternoon. All other parts of the forecast remain the same for … Read more
The modeling has continued to trend a little further west during the past 24 hours, so I have increased forecast snowfall amounts a little (see map above). A slight deviation in the current forecast track of this storm will significantly effect the amounts indicated. Snow begins during the predawn hours Thursday and becomes heavy at … Read more
Above: ECMWF model forecast for 1 PM Thursday. (Surface pressure & precipitation during previous 6 hours). At this time I’m thinking snow accumulations Thursday in CT will be between 2″-6″, with the higher amounts most likely in parts of eastern CT. A slight change in the projected track of the storm will change these amounts … Read more
