The Inside on the Outside
The Big Picture WPC · 4:00 AM EDT today
Three stories own the national map today, and they could not be less alike. In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Lala is lashing Hawaii — a rain gauge on the Big Island has caught more than 33 inches in two days, and warnings fly on every island. In the East, the most flood-weary corridor in America — the Ohio Valley into West Virginia — takes yet another round of heavy rain on ground that endured what forecasters are plainly calling catastrophic flash flooding last week. And across the South, a heat wave that will not break pushes feels-like temperatures toward 115. The one mercy: the eastern rain machine finally shuts down Monday, when a cold front sweeps the pattern out to sea.
Lead Story: Lala & Hawaii CPHC/NHC Advisory 17 · 5:00 AM HST today
Tropical Storm Lala — All Islands Under Warnings LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
Lala — downgraded overnight from hurricane strength — is passing just south of the island chain: 70 mph winds, centered about 75 miles south of Honolulu this morning and turning westward, with the core forecast to stay offshore of the main islands. The wind is not the headline. The water is. Torrential rain has been wringing out over the windward slopes for two days, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are ongoing on the Big Island and Maui, and the rain and wind are now spreading over Oahu and, later today, Kauai. Storm-total forecasts reach 30 to 35 inches on the windward Big Island, with 2 to 6 more inches across the rest of the chain, plus 1–2 feet of surge and dangerous surf on top. One more twist: forecasters expect Lala to weaken only slightly as it exits — and then restrengthen over open water by midweek.
Trouble Spots
Flash Flooding — West Virginia & Central Appalachians MODERATE RISK 3/4
The day’s top mainland hazard, and the forecasters’ midday update sharpened it: multiple rounds of storms are expected to train across West Virginia — one this morning across the north, another dropping south across the state tonight — riding air holding around 2.2 inches of moisture, near the top of what an August airmass can carry. WPC’s own discussion says scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding are possible with locally considerable impacts — a word that office uses sparingly. Around midday, storms were already producing an inch an hour from southern Ohio into West Virginia. A new tonight-risk was also added for east-central Missouri and southern Illinois, where over 2 inches may fall in developing evening storms.
Severe Storms — Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic SLIGHT RISK 2/5
Damaging wind gusts this afternoon into early evening as storm clusters ride east from Michigan and Indiana across Ohio and West Virginia into the Mid-Atlantic. A rotating storm or two is possible over southern Ohio, and — a detail buried in the technical discussion — a tornado or two can’t be ruled out across northern Virginia, where southerly surface winds give low-level winds just enough turn.
Severe Storms — Northern & Central High Plains SLIGHT RISK 2/5
Storms come off the Rockies’ high terrain and foothills late this afternoon — cellular at first with large hail the lead threat, then congealing into lines with damaging gusts this evening.
Dangerous Heat — South & Southeast MAJOR–EXTREME HEATRISK
Highs upper 90s to mid 100s, heat indices 105–115, and record-warm nights that deny any recovery — the quiet killer in long heat waves. The extended outlook shifts the core of the heat westward late this week: some relief finally reaches the Southeast by the weekend, while the Desert Southwest climbs into the low 110s and the south-central states just keep cooking. Check on neighbors without working air conditioning.
The Tropics — Three Basins NHC/CPHC outlooks · 8:00 AM EDT today
Pacific: Busy — and the Assembly Line Is Running
Lala leads (see above). Behind her, the eastern Pacific has two more candidates, each given even (50 percent) odds of developing within a week: one expected to form several hundred miles south of Mexico around midweek, and a second — worth Hawaii’s attention — forecast to organize southeast of the islands and track westward into the central Pacific late this week. The remnants of Hernan, meanwhile, are dying quietly at sea near 138°W.
Atlantic: As Quiet as the Bulletin Allows
This morning’s outlook is a single sentence: tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next seven days. In mid-August — two weeks into the climb toward the September 10 peak — that is close to the quietest statement the National Hurricane Center can physically issue. Three tropical waves are marching across the basin, but none has a future on the books. Why one ocean roars while the other sleeps: see The Inside.
The Inside what the discussions actually say
The reasoning behind the forecast, pulled from the technical discussions forecasters write for each other.
“Considerable” is a word with a price tag. When WPC’s excessive-rainfall forecasters wrote that West Virginia faces possible considerable flash-flood impacts, that’s calibrated language — the tier reserved for flooding that damages homes and forces water rescues. The reasoning: repeated rounds of storms, moisture near the ceiling for August air, moist winds shoved up against complex terrain, and soils the office itself describes as thoroughly saturated after a week that produced catastrophic flash flooding. They also told on themselves, usefully: the models have “not been performing overly well” in this event, and where guidance split, they deliberately sided with the wetter camp. That’s forecasters buying insurance with experience.
The shutoff switch is real, and it’s Monday. Every discussion converges on the same ending: the cold front crossing the Ohio Valley tonight reaches the coast Monday, drier air floods in behind it, and this multi-week rain event is declared over — WPC’s storm summary literally says the front should “bring an end to this event.” After the week the Midwest and Appalachians just had, that sentence is the best one in today’s stack.
Tuesday: watch the Plains for an overnight wind machine. SPC’s Day 3 outlook sketches a classic late-summer setup from the central Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley — supercells firing on hail first, then merging into a forward-charging overnight complex as the low-level jet ramps up. WPC’s flood desk is eyeing the same corridor, centered on Iowa, with 3,000+ J/kg of fuel. Storms that morph from hailers to wind-makers after dark are how August gets its derechos; nobody’s said that word yet, but the ingredients list reads like the recipe.
One planet, two oceans, one explanation. Hawaii takes a tropical storm while the Atlantic files a seven-day silence — and CPC’s discussion quietly names the culprit: a growing El Niño influence, the climate pattern that historically supercharges the eastern and central Pacific while sitting on the Atlantic. Lala isn’t an anomaly; she’s the pattern showing its face. If the Atlantic stays muzzled deeper into peak season, this is the reason you’ll keep hearing.
The heat doesn’t end — it relocates. WPC’s extended discussion has the upper-level dome sliding from the Gulf Coast toward the Four Corners and Intermountain West by late week. Translation: the Southeast finally exhales over the weekend, while the Desert Southwest inherits low-110s and the south-central states stay locked in. Same heat, new forwarding address.
Looking Ahead CPC · 3:00 PM EDT Sat — current issuance; next ~3 PM today
For August 21–25: warmer than normal nearly everywhere, with the strongest signal — better than 70 percent odds — over the Four Corners. The Northeast and Great Lakes sit it out near normal beneath a jet-stream dip over eastern Canada that also tilts the Eastern Seaboard slightly wet, while the southern Plains lean dry. By August 23–29 the ridge amplifies and even the Northeast tips warm. Confidence: 4 out of 5 — high, by CPC’s own standards.
Also Watching
- Aurora Watch: A blast of solar material that left the Sun Friday arrives Monday into Tuesday, with a chance of a minor (G1) geomagnetic storm — enough, if it verifies, to pull the northern lights into the northern-tier states Monday and Tuesday nights. Dark skies, north-facing view. SWPC · 8:30 AM EDT today
- Fire Weather: No critical areas today — a genuinely quiet national fire map. Monday brings elevated conditions to northeastern California, northern Nevada, and southern Oregon as dry, breezy westerlies arrive ahead of a Pacific trough, with humidity dipping to 12–20 percent over very dry fuels. SPC Fire Wx · 2:51 AM EDT today
- Drought Monitor: Weekly product; the next national map lands Thursday, August 20 — featured here every Thursday edition.
One Cool Thing
Scroll back up to the live Hawaii satellite view and consider the scale problem it captures: Mauna Kea’s summit clocked a 140 mph gust — hurricane-force-and-a-half — while the official storm never stopped being “just” a strong tropical storm at sea level. Mountains don’t read advisories. Wind speeds over Hawaii’s high terrain routinely run 30 percent or more above the advisory number, which is why forecasters write that warning into every bulletin — and why a 70 mph storm can leave a 140 mph fingerprint.
Shareables
Source Ledger every claim, timed & sourced
Our standard: nothing in this briefing older than 8 hours without a flag. Products that update once daily or weekly are used at their most recent issuance and marked.
| Product | Issued | Status |
|---|---|---|
| WPC Short-Range Forecast Discussion | 4:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 | CURRENT |
| WPC Extended (Day 3–7) Forecast Discussion | 3:39 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 | CURRENT |
| WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion (16Z update) | 11:57 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 | CURRENT |
| WPC Mesoscale Precip Discussion #1068 | 10:49 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 | CURRENT |
| WPC Storm Summaries (OH Valley #10 / Lala #2) | 11:00 AM EDT Sun / 11:00 PM HST | CURRENT |
| SPC Day 1 / Day 2 / Day 3 Convective Outlooks | 8:42 AM / 1:26 AM / 3:19 AM EDT Sun | CURRENT |
| SPC Day 1–2 Fire Weather Outlooks | 2:51 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 | CURRENT |
| NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook | 8:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 | CURRENT |
| NHC East Pacific / CPHC Central Pacific Outlooks | 8:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 | CURRENT |
| CPHC Tropical Storm Lala Advisory No. 17 | 5:00 AM HST (11 AM EDT) Sun Aug 16 | CURRENT |
| NHC Atlantic & E. Pacific Tropical Wx Discussions | ~11:56 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 | CURRENT |
| CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Prognostic Discussion | 3:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 | CURRENT ISSUANCE · daily product; next ~3 PM today |
| SWPC Space Weather Forecast Discussion | 8:30 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 (1230 UTC) | CURRENT |
For Newsrooms & Reporters
Need a Meteorologist On Air or On the Record Today?
Bob Cox — veteran broadcast meteorologist heard mornings on WTIC NewsTalk 1080 (Hartford) and forensic meteorologist with 30+ years analyzing high-impact weather — tracks these stories in real time and is available for interviews and expert comment: radio, TV, print, podcast, fast turnaround.
Today’s interview-ready angles: Lala’s Hawaii impacts and why a 70 mph storm produced a 140 mph mountain gust · the West Virginia flash-flood threat and what the NWS’s “considerable impacts” language really signals · the strangely silent Atlantic at peak season and the El Niño connection · Tuesday’s Plains severe weather setup.
BOOKING: kaitlin@coxweatherservices.com · 888-248-9347 · coxweatherservices.com · attribution: “Bob Cox, meteorologist, Cox Weather Services”